From abortion rights to inflation: 5 ways the 2024 election will impact voters

When voters choose the next president in 2024, they’ll be picking a leader to address the contentious issues dividing the nation.
Republicans and Democrats in America are drifting further apart, according to polling, leaving little consensus on serious crises – gun violence, immigration reform and climate change – that voters will be thinking about at the ballot box. Those issues will frame an election that also marks new territory in how Americans receive their information online.
Here’s USA TODAY’s look at the debates and themes that could shape the 2024 race and how they’ll impact the country from coast to coast.
Most Americans aren’t jazzed about a 2020 rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, no matter their political leanings.
An Economist/YouGov poll released earlier this month found significant majorities oppose the idea of Biden or Trump running in 2024. Another survey commissioned by the Associated Press showed roughly 57% of U.S. adults would be dissatisfied with either man being nominated by their respective party.
Whether it’s Biden’s waning popularity or Trump’s criminal indictments, such a malaise is bound to change the ways parties and other organizations engage voters. This hesitancy could also trickle down to campaigns at the congressional and state levels.
The Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, for instance, has found young voters are less enthusiastic across the partisan divide. Among Americans aged 18-29, the institute’s poll found 49% said they will “definitely” vote. That’s down from the 57% who said the same in 2019.
Experts say a growing number have vowed to simply stay home on Election Day or cast their ballot for a third-party contender, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein or Cornel West.
The 2024 US Election: What will we be talking about?
Americans consistently rank the economy as their top concern going into 2024 after weathering historic sticker shock.
Inflation leaves people with less money in their pockets as they struggle to pay bills and afford other necessities. That may explain why voters feel horrible about the economy, even as most indicators show it getting stronger.
December’s jobs report revealed the country added 199,000 jobs in November, unemployment fell to 3.7% and your 401(k) is healthier due to record stock market increases.
Biden and the Democrats cheer these indicators. They consistently remind supporters how inflation has also dropped considerably, from a troubling 9.1% to 3.2%, all while avoiding a recession.
Yet polling and other economic yardsticks show Americans feel a stifling sense that they have lost ground, which Trump and other Republican candidates consistently tap into.
The Economist/YouGov poll released this month shows 45% of adults rate the current economy as poor, versus 27% who rate it as fair, 18% who call it good and just 6% who think it is excellent.
If Democrats feel confident about any issue at the center of next year’s election, it’s abortion rights.
Progressives have scored seven straight victories in statewide ballot measures on abortion, most recently in Ohio.
And in recent weeks, women challenging restrictive abortion laws in Kentucky and Texas shot to the top of national headlines. Kate Cox left Texas to have an abortion after her fetus was diagnosed with a deadly genetic condition.
Republicans are still trying to figure out how to talk about the issue in a way that appeals to independent voters.
For example, when asked about Cox’s case, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley told reporters Americans “have to show compassion and humanize the situation.” The White House hopeful has long argued that her GOP colleagues must be honest about the slim chances of passing a national abortion ban in the heavily divided U.S. Congress.
Abortion rights could also determine which party takes control of the Senate after 2024. Democrats and their allies are seeking to add a state constitutional amendment on abortion access to the ballot in Montana, where incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is considered vulnerable.
And the Supreme Court may play a role after it agreed to hear cases challenging the abortion pill, which could curtail access in states where the procedure is legal and protected.
After the 2020 election, U.S. officials and thought leaders spent a considerable amount of time worrying about how misinformation impacts the nation’s elections.
Now, there is an added concern about how the advances in artificial intelligence technology, such as using deepfakes to create false endorsements, could further erode how voters get information.
A recent AP poll found 58% of adults believe AI will increase the spread of false and misleading information in the 2024 elections, as experts debate its usefulness and pitfalls.
Biden signed a sweeping executive order in November aimed at confronting growing concerns the technology poses to the U.S. workforce, privacy and national security. But it is still unknown how AI will impact our elections, and if local, state and federal officials are prepared to keep voters informed.
If Trump prevails in the GOP primary, it sets up an unprecedented question that the country’s democratic institutions haven’t met before.
A former president is seeking a return to power, but Trump faces four criminal indictments, including allegations he tried to steal the 2020 election. Trump has long argued without evidence that the indictments are a form of election interference from Biden and state and federal prosecutors.
Adding fuel to the historic political fire is that special counsel Jack Smith, the prosecutor in Trump’s federal 2020 election interference case, has asked the Supreme Court to weigh whether the former president can claim immunity from criminal charges.
That legal fracas further muddies the political waters in what will be a crowded calendar next year between Trump’s multiple court cases and the ongoing election.
But Biden faces his own legal landmines via his son, Hunter Biden. The Republican-controlled House, filled with many Trump allies, formally authorized an impeachment inquiry into the president over his role, if any, in his son’s financial affairs with foreign actors.
While fending off a congressional subpoena, Biden’s son is also tangling with federal charges on tax and gun crimes.
This dramatic set of legal circumstances might not rank as a top issue for voters, but it could branch out into several situations where the country’s legal and political institutions are tested and collide in unprecedented ways.
Contributing: Karissa Waddick, USA TODAY